CITIC Securities three reasons caused by entering a period of low volatility depends on breaking for invictus gaming

CITIC Securities: A shares into three reasons caused by low volatility during the breaking force depends on Sina App: Live on-line blogger to guide the purchase of new shares: the stock market is the most simple way to pick up the money CITIC Securities Investment Report: the report points framework we first discuss the volatility of A shares, and then discuss its direction, finally investment and configuration recommendations. Bureau of low volatility: who made the screw shell? A shares into a period of low volatility. The recent volatility in the market further down, the Shanghai Composite Index 60 day volatility of up to 0.75%, close to the lowest value since 2014 and a few low volatility range in 2000. Historically, the volatility of A stock index into this kind of interval may be maintained for a long time; and out of the low volatility depends on the inflection point of important variables, institutional changes and the resonance of these factors. Breaking the low volatility need to rely on external forces. "Crash" sequelae, regulatory risk and the "national team" three factor is an important reason for A stock volatility tends to decline, these factors will gradually weaken, but the short-term will not significantly improve. The sound of the tone of monetary policy and real estate sales overheating under interest rates further down the limited space; while the trend of stock market lever strictly under the supervision of hard turning point: A share of short-term difficult to quickly get out of low volatility, need to rely on external force to break the dilemma. Looking for positive energy: real estate deal + basic factors to lift the volatility center. In the low volatility of positive factors in central uplift index may come from the real estate deal and the fundamentals of data: the former cooling real estate transactions out of funds, the formation of good liquidity of A shares; the latter than expected and positive signal increased, investors in the fundamentals is expected to improve. Real estate new deal squeeze out of the stock market, but the extent is limited. For a long time China price and stock price correlation is not obvious, but since 2014 the trend of the two obvious negative correlation (correlation coefficient -0.71), the formation of this relationship depends on the level of interest rates down, the common attributes of assets under two plus leverage shortage. After a long period of real estate new deal cooling sales, squeezing out the funds have a positive impact on the liquidity of the stock market, but it may be weaker than before. The reason is that: 1) the risk-free interest rate further downside is limited; 2) tighter regulatory environment and high difficulty of stock funds leverage; 3) real estate transactions after cooling, investment funds from the housing market to short-term withdrawal; 4) shunt housing market funds not only stocks, other assets competitiveness is not weak. Fundamental improvement is another important clue. Industrial stocks slowly start, financial and PPP force to maintain the high growth rate of investment in infrastructure, real estate sales are expected to lead to an increase in the consumption of alternative options, these factors make the economic data positive signal boom. September macroeconomic and earnings data have more than expected space, is conducive to improving the fundamentals of investors A shares is expected to uplift the central index fluctuations. Investment advice: closely linked to performance + boom line, through the low volatility for the fundamental dilemma of positive energy, through the low volatility dilemma. The short-term characteristics of the low volatility of the market obviously difficult to break, and the real estate deal out of funds and for a good basic for central uplift wave, the market in the period of consolidation, the main opportunity is the structure of the. Suggestion from theory相关的主题文章: