1 manufacturing giant long under the shadow of the news! In fact, wrong, big bad is misreading 音羽かなで

1 manufacturing giant long under the shadow of the news! In fact wrong, bad was misreading Phoenix finance comprehensive in August 25th after the market fell sharply, the decline was over 1%, the afternoon slowly pulled up, decline narrowed. On Wednesday evening, there is news that the venture capital meet regulatory storm, this regulation was directed at universal insurance, analysts believe that there will be 600 billion universal insurance funds gradually withdraw 64 shares. Before the disk there are also analysts believe that today’s stock market or will fall sharply. Morning index Dikaidizou, intraday decline was over 1%, the minimum detection to 3041 points, followed by iron and steel, brokerage sector force to support the market, index slowly pulled K from the map, today to close out a long lower shadow. Universal insurance news on the stock market geometry? Huatai Securities Analysis believes that the so-called biggest bad is actually a misreading. Huatai Securities Luo Yi analysis, in short duration to refrain from misreading of product adjustment, universal insurance funds are not static from the stock market recently, China Insurance Regulatory Commission to adjust the short duration of personal products comprehensive issue, the media said there will be 600 billion yuan for universal insurance withdrawal of A shares, and this statement is inaccurate and too one-sided. First of all, the adjustment is not a one size fits all. According to the regulation, the annual premium income of the short deposit renewal products in the insurance company is controlled within 2 times of the company’s capital investment, and the buffer period is given, and adjusted to 90%, 70%, 50% and 30% of the quota in the next 4 years respectively. And this part of the adjusted short and medium deposit insurance products will be accepted by the new compliance insurance products. Emphasize product design instead of universal insurance. The adjustment will be carried out from universal insurance account management, refund premiums, life insurance interest rates, annuity forms and so on. It is not a barrier to universal insurance, but an emphasis on the nature of insurance. At present, China’s universal insurance accounts for 31%, while the United States accounted for 40%, the adjustment of term structure is the key. The purpose is to prevent the risk, to prevent short-term long-term investment, asset liability insurance, the insurance is stressed several important aspects of adjustment: 1. life insurance policy guarantee the cumulative amount of not less than 200% of the value of the accounts, according to the 2. universal insurance risk protection cost additional risk premium; 3. refund insurance fees for 3 years before May 0; 4. of the scheduled interest rate of more than 3% of the 3.45% life insurance, annuity insurance submitted to the CIRC for approval. This is the emphasis on the insurance industry "insurance" first, will be forced to high interest rates as a selling point of small and medium-sized insurance companies to adjust the debt structure, increase the weight of death difference. On the other hand, the risk of cash flow is avoided by preventing the spread loss and the centralized surrender. At the same time, adjust the debt maturity structure, prevent "long term long term investment", reduce the risk of asset liability mismatch. Insurance funds will still be an important participant in the capital market, according to our previous report in the insurance information management depth report, the premium income will reach 5 trillion yuan in 2020, an annual compound growth rate of 16%, corresponding to investment funds in 2020 about 22 trillion yuan. According to the large class of insurance funds supervision, the upper limit of equity investment is 30%, and the total amount of equity investment can reach 6 trillion and 600 billion yuan. Even if the current prudent investment in the proportion of 14% of equity, the cumulative amount of equity investment will reach 3 trillion and 100 billion yuan. And as of July this year, China’s Insurance funds; 1消息制造巨长下影线!其实错了,大利空竟是误读 凤凰财经综合8月25日大盘盘中急挫,跌幅一度超1%,午后缓慢拉起,跌幅缩小。周三晚间,有消息称,险资再遇监管风暴,而这次的监管矛头直接指向了万能险,分析认为,将有6000亿“万能险”资金陆续撤出64股。盘前也有分析认为,今天股市或将出现暴跌。上午股指低开低走,盘中跌幅一度超1%,最低探至3041点,随后钢铁、券商等板块发力护盘,指数缓慢拉升,从K线图看,今天将收出一根巨长的下影线。万能险的消息究竟对股市影响几何?华泰证券分析认为,所谓的最大利空其实是一种误读。华泰证券罗毅分析认为,切莫误读中短存续期产品调整,万能险资金不是静态撤出股票市场针对近日保监会对中短存续期人身产品的全面调整一事,有媒体称将有6000亿元“万能险”撤出A股,这一论断并不准确且过于片面。首先,调整并非一刀切。根据调整规定,保险公司中短存续期产品年度保费收入控制在公司投入资本2倍以内,并给予缓冲期,在接下来4年分别调整占比至限额的90%、70%、50%、30%。而这部分受调整的中短存续期保险产品将由新的合规保险产品来承接。强调产品设计而非阻隔万能险。调整将从万能险账户管理、退保费,人身险预定利率、年金形态等多方面开展。并不是阻隔万能险,而是强调保险的保障属性。目前我国万能险占比31%,而美国占比40%,期限结构的调整是关键。宗旨在于防风险,预防“短线长投”匹配资产负债,强调保险姓保此次对调整的几个重要方面:1.人身险保单保障金额累计不低于账户价值的200%,2.根据万能险风险保障成本加收风险保费;3.退保费用前3年不得为0;4.对预定利率超过3%的人身险、3.45%的年金险报保监会审批。这皆是在强调保险行业的“保”字为先,将倒逼以高预定利率为卖点的中小保险公司调整负债结构,增加死差的权重。另一方面,将预防利差损和集中退保产生的现金流挤兑风险。同时,调整负债期限结构防止“短线长投”,降低资产负债错配风险。保险资金仍将是资本市场的重要参与者根据我们之前在保险资管深度报告中的测算,保费收入将在2020年达到5万亿元,年复合增长率16%,对应投资资金在2020年约为22万亿元。按照保险资金大类监管给予权益投资30%的上限,权益投资累计金额可达6.6万亿元。即便保持目前14%的谨慎权益投资比例,权益投资累计金额也将达到3.1万亿元。而截止今年7月我国保险资金投资权益占比仅为1.7万亿元,权益动态空间达1.4万亿元—4.9万亿元。监管在此前的会议中也指出,保险要积极参与多层次资本市场建设,多种形式推进保险资金直接投资。目前保险机构已是股票市场仅次于基金公司的第二大参与者,共同基金的最大机构投资者,保险投资资金将持续作为权益市场的中坚力量。放开前端管好后端,行业分化建议配置优质险企监管今年以来多次强调负债管理,防范资产错配风险、流动性风险、跨区域 跨行业传递的风险。因此在调整负债结构的同时,保险公司在投资端也需做好风险隔离。另一方面,,监管也放开前端,拓宽保险资金投资私募股权基金、设立资产支持计划的渠道。在新规调整下,我们预计以中短存续期为主、以高预定利率为主的中小险企将受到一段时间的冲击,但利好大型险企。大型险企精算队伍强大,预定利率控制较好,并非完全依靠利差。其次,主要产品结构为长久期人身险,受中短存续期调整影响小。再者,凭借强大的营销渠道可借机进一步扩大市场份额。目前四大险企的P EV均在1倍左右,估值修复空间大。对行业保持增持评级,推荐太保、平安、新华、国寿。国泰君安分析师刘斐凡则分析认为,市场担心保监会收紧对高保证利率产品的监管后,险资未来没有很大动力买入地产等蓝筹股。中金公司称,新规若实施,来自万能险的存量资金会在5年内逐步被置换或取出。但因为存量高现价仍保有5年的时间窗口,因此影响有限。而由于新增产品进一步收严,来自这一类保险公司的增量资金恐受影响。大势解读,牛股捕捉,尽在微信号【凤凰证券】或者【ifengstock】 盘后剖析A股走势,指点明日走势,请关注微信号【复盘大师】或【fupan588】 股票早餐,股市内参,涨停股预测,尽在微信号【A股情报】或【agqb888】 相关的主题文章: